Issue #47: Freight in the Second Trump Era – Trade, Tech, and Transformation
As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second time, it’s clear this presidency will look different from his first.
As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second time, it’s clear this presidency will look different from his first. The way he ran his campaign — strategically appearing on platforms like The All-In Podcast and The Joe Rogan Experience — felt deliberate and targeted, reaching both traditional and non-traditional audiences. His campaign staffing, cabinet appointments, and outreach to businesses reflect a more measured approach, signaling lessons learned from his 2020 loss.
This time, Trump’s relationships with businesses also seem to have evolved. He’s engaging with leaders in technology, manufacturing, and logistics in a way that feels more collaborative, perhaps in recognition of their critical roles in shaping the economy. For freight, freight tech, and cross-border logistics, these changes set the stage for what could be one of the most transformative periods in the industry’s history.
Here’s a deeper look at the three key areas where I anticipate the most significant impacts:
1. Trade Policy and Its Impact on North American Logistics
Trade policy remains a cornerstone of Trump’s economic agenda, but this time the strategy feels more targeted. With plans for new tariffs on China and potential renegotiations of the USMCA, the administration appears focused on reshaping trade to strengthen North America’s economic ties while further reducing reliance on overseas imports.
Why This Feels Different:
Trump’s approach to trade policy during his first term was often unpredictable, with sudden tariffs and last-minute negotiations. This time, the administration is signaling a more deliberate effort to rebalance trade relationships, with a clear focus on promoting regional trade.
Key Impacts:
Short-Term Volatility from Tariffs: New tariffs on Chinese imports could spark a surge in freight activity as companies race to import goods ahead of implementation. Once the tariffs take effect, however, we’re likely to see a steep decline in volumes tied to Chinese imports, affecting domestic drayage and long-haul trucking.
Accelerated Nearshoring: A revamped USMCA could fuel nearshoring trends, driving more trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. This creates opportunities for cross-border brokers, carriers, and tech platforms that specialize in simplifying regional logistics.
Border Complexity = Tech Opportunity: Increased trade within North America will add complexity at borders, making technology that streamlines customs and provides end-to-end visibility indispensable.
For logistics companies, the message is clear: prepare for short-term disruption, but position yourself to capitalize on the long-term opportunities in cross-border trade.
2. Deregulation Fuels Freight Tech and M&A
Deregulation was a hallmark of Trump’s first term, and this time, the administration seems poised to double down on reducing compliance hurdles for businesses. For freight and freight tech, this shift comes at a time when the industry is already undergoing significant change, creating fertile ground for innovation, investment, and consolidation.
Why This Feels Different:
During Trump’s first term, deregulation benefited traditional industries like trucking and manufacturing. This time, the freight tech sector is positioned to take full advantage, thanks to years of investment in digital tools and automation. With a more disciplined venture capital market and an emphasis on profitability, the next wave of investment will likely focus on scalable, revenue-generating solutions.
Key Impacts:
VC Reengagement: A more business-friendly environment will likely reignite venture capital interest in freight tech. Investors, however, will be choosier, favoring companies with clear ROI and strong market traction.
M&A Momentum: Deregulation and improving market sentiment could trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Larger players will look to acquire innovative startups, while companies that struggled to scale during the past few years may seek exits.
Industry Shakeout: Not every startup will survive. Companies that raised during the 2020-2022 freight tech boom but failed to deliver results may shut down, creating opportunities for consolidation and talent acquisition.
For operators and entrepreneurs, this is the moment to demonstrate value, execute effectively, and position your business for growth — whether through scaling independently or exploring strategic partnerships.
3. AI and the David Sacks Effect
Trump’s appointment of David Sacks as the AI and crypto czar signals a heightened focus on technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence. For the freight industry, the adoption of AI is no longer optional—it’s becoming central to how companies operate and compete.
Why This Feels Different:
AI’s role in logistics has grown exponentially in recent years, but with federal support and a national spotlight, its development and adoption are likely to accelerate rapidly. The question now isn’t if AI will transform logistics but how businesses can implement it effectively to gain an edge.
Key Impacts:
Enhanced Efficiency for Brokerages: Freight brokerages are already using AI to automate inbound calls, outbound prospecting, shipment tracking, invoicing, and more. Companies that adopt these tools early will improve productivity and reduce costs.
Increased Funding for AI Solutions: With government backing, freight tech companies specializing in AI are poised to attract significant investment. Expect to see a wave of new tools targeting operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.
AI for All Sizes: AI tools are becoming increasingly accessible to businesses of all sizes. Whether you’re a global brokerage or an independent carrier, the key will be integrating AI in ways that align with your strategy and deliver measurable results.
The freight industry’s future is undeniably tied to AI, and those who embrace its potential will find themselves leading the charge.
Looking Ahead: Transformation Through Adaptation
Trump’s second term feels like the start of a new chapter — not just for politics but for freight. Trade policies are shifting, deregulation is creating new opportunities, and AI is reshaping how the industry operates. While these changes bring challenges, they also present enormous opportunities for those willing to adapt and invest in the future.
As sentiment in the market improves, businesses are signaling a readiness to invest in solutions that drive efficiency and scalability. Freight tech is poised to play a central role in this transformation, offering tools to navigate the complexities of cross-border trade, enhance visibility, and unlock new levels of efficiency.
2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the freight industry. Those who move quickly and strategically will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving landscape.